Are the United States and China on the Verge of a Nuclear War Over Taiwan?

 

US President Biden and China's Xi Jinping [Image: Aljazeera]

If you follow world news closely, you may have heard that the world is on the brink of another major war that could wreak colossal damage, more than the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Experts say that the tensions building between the United States of America (USA) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) over Taiwan, or rather the Republic of China (ROC), is not just a confrontation between the weak and the strong, but a confrontation between the two most powerful economies and nuclear powerhouses in the world. Experts warn that the entire global economy and security will be jeopardized and the lives of many will be endangered.

A few days ago, it was announced that Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi could visit Taipei, Taiwan - a former Chinese province. The moment this rumor spread around the world, Beijing reacted quickly by condemning the visit, which they saw as a threat to their "territorial integrity." Accordingly, Pelosi visited Taiwan. Beijing, offended by this, launched military exercises around Taiwan's borders and also sent several drones into Taiwan's airspace. In addition, Beijing has imposed sanctions on Taiwan for halting exports and imports of goods and services between the two countries. As of this writing, Beijing has blocked Taiwan's key port areas that the country can connect to the rest of the world.

But the question is, why does China view Pelosi's visit as a threat to its sovereignty to the extent that it engages in risky military exercises on another country's borders? Well, first of all, Nancy Pelosi is a longtime critic of the Communist Party leadership in Beijing. Also, she is the third in command in Washington, making her one of the most powerful officials to visit. On the other hand, Beijing's top priority today is to see Taiwan's "reunification" with mainland China. Because the PRC always recognizes Taiwan as a sphere of influence, just like Hong Kong. In addition, the government led by Xi Jinping wants to consolidate its supremacy in the region. As such, Beijing is very skeptical that the United States' presence in this area is a strategic tactic to curb its ambitions and projected growth in the coming years. These are some of the pretexts Beijing has been fighting for years.

 

On the other hand, since the beginning of these tensions, US Secretary of Defense John Kirby has made it very clear that the US has not changed its commitment to the "One China" policy. The US added that it has no intention of deviating from the "Shanghai Communiqué of 1972," that the US will only recognize the People's Republic of China in the region, and that Taiwan is a former part of China. However, the US has opposed any unilateral decision in Beijing that could undermine Taiwan's self-government. Even if the White House admitted that it does not recognize or support Taiwan's independence. That means the United States is committed to cooperating with the One China treaty while resisting any regional aggression that might quash the region's status quo.

Before diving deep into this article, let us review the brief historical background of mainland China and the island of Taiwan. Historically, Taiwan once had indigenous Formosan residents around the 13th century. But later, in the 17th century, it came under the rule of the mainland dynasty until the Sino-Japanese War, when the island became part of the Japanese Empire through the "Treaty of Shimonoseki" in 1895. So over time, after the defeat of the Chiang Kai Shek government in the first republic in mainland China. He evacuated along with 1.2 million people to the island of Taiwan, today's Republic of China (ROC). Subsequently, Chian-Kai Sek established his government in Taiwan. While Mao Zedong, the Communist Party leader who defeated Sek, established the modern People's Republic of China (PRC), i.e. Mainland China.

The map of the Strait that demarcated Taiwan from Mainland China [image: CNBC]

Interestingly, Taiwan was once the only recognized Republic of China (ROC) in the region. This means that it has a diplomatic seat at the United Nations. But after a series of disputes with the People's Republic of China, Taiwan gave up its seat at the United Nations. As a result, Taiwan maintains diplomatic relations with only 13 of the 193 member states of the United Nations. In addition, it has an unofficial alliance with only 58 of the above UN member states. This is to show you that despite its booming democracy, economy, and technology, Taiwan has maintained its commitment to the "One China" policy by handling its government affairs remotely. All of this is for peace in the South China Sea region. This is the regional status quo the United States is clamoring for. 

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-we [image:Aljazeera]

Therefore, if China continues to amass troops and sophisticated weaponry near Taiwan and subsequently invades and installs Beijing's puppets, we are likely to see the United States respond and defend Taiwan "militarily," as Joe Biden recently revealed. As evidence, the Pentagon has ordered a US nuclear-powered supercarrier named "USS Ronald Reagan" to be near the Taiwan Sea "to monitor the situation" while China continues reckless and risky military exercises. The tension builds slowly and can lead to the worst possible scenarios. According to experts, the colossal damage, in this case, will cause pain "tenfold" than the war between Russia and Ukraine. Because of this, leaders have begun calling for the de-escalation of China's military drills a few miles from the island, urging all parties involved to choose peace over conflict and discord.

Otherwise, we could witness a change in the international rules-based system, and the world economy will be catastrophically hit the hardest. That makes life unbearable. As you may know, China is the largest manufacturing center in the world, making most countries in the world dependent on its manufacturing output. Therefore, any confrontation with the US would lead to a disruption in the global supply chain. Reuters reported that the looming war would "damage the world economy." Because Beijing will face brutal sanctions and global condemnation. In addition, Bloomberg reported that the aftermath of this war "will threaten critical shipping lanes that carry perhaps a third of the world's maritime traffic." So the damage is enormous.

The recent full-blown war in Ukraine is an indication that if push comes to shove between the US and China, we could end up in an inevitable nuclear holocaust. Now the question arises, how can we avoid a possible nuclear war? Well, experts have suggested ways for China and the US to resolve this issue diplomatically. It is obvious that we are in one of the most precarious moments of the 21st century, anything can happen today. Both Washington and Beijing believe we are in a "new age of strategic competition." However, the US and China can coexist if each side is willing to do what is necessary.

To this end, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd proposed three aspects that the two countries should pursue to coexist geopolitically and peacefully without rancor. First, Rudd asserts that each side should pay attention to how "their actions or language are read by the other. Currently, both countries pay no attention to their words and actions." Second, the two countries should seek peaceful coexistence to protect their key strategic geopolitical interests by "developing a new level of mutual strategic competence." Third, Washington and Beijing should "[define] the key areas in which continued strategic cooperation will be recognized and encouraged."

These alone cannot completely prevent war, but they can help ease the tensions that are currently building. And only possible when the two countries sit together and reflect on how long the world has endured the odds of war since the end of World War II. Although a few months ago Russia shocked the world by invading Ukraine. Therefore, the war in Ukraine is reason enough for these two great powers, China and the United States, to lower the temperature and seek a more diplomatic understanding. They should return to their foreign policy drawing board to redraw the red lines that could eventually lead them to nuclear sabotage.

In summary, the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi prompted Beijing to start all these military exercises that look like waging a full-blown war against Taiwan. While the United States is always ready to resist Xi's aggression, as Washington has promised to come to Taipei's aid if anyone threatens its self-governing democracy. We have also seen how devastating this war can be for global peace and the economy. However, if the two countries follow the procedures suggested by the former Australian Prime Minister, we could have a world locked in mutual strategic competition.

In the end, I hope that both Taiwan and China and the United States will seek a new way forward based on mutual interest by giving everyone a fair chance geopolitically. I hope they will look at the bigger picture of their actions. Because we have not yet recovered from one of the unprecedented pandemics of our time. In addition, the consequences of the war in Ukraine are still very much alive. That's why the world isn't ready. We need peace. These are indeed frightening hours of the international rules-based system. May justice prevail! 

NB: Any omission in the historical background of the two Chinas is attributable to the author's research.