The Chronicles of Russia-Ukraine Conflicts

5/2/2022

This article discusses why the imminent invasion of Ukraine by Russia portends dire consequences for the rest of the world. Currently, this is the most talked-about topic around the world. Therefore, I deem it fitting to share the crux of the topic with you. But first and foremost, let's have a look at the brief historical background of the old Soviet Union.

The Soviet Union which was officially known as the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) was created during the 1917 Revolution when the House of the Romanov of the Russian Empire was ousted. Vladimir Lenin led this political upheaval in his pursuit to form the first constitutionally socialist state. His Bolsheviks army spent about five years fighting those who were against his philosophies. Following the Bolsheviks' victory in 1922 that was when the Soviet confederation of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and the Transcaucasian was achieved. The economy and governance were centralized. But rapid industrialization, economic growth, and technological advancements were in 1924 when Jason Stalin came into power. Before the great purge to suppress  Jason Stalin's foes, there was an artificially inflicted famine that killed more than 6 million Ukrainians. Many historians regarded this carnage as a calculated "genocide." 

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine became a sovereign state. As a result, the country has cut most of its ties with Moscow, and other Eastern European Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). For this reason, more recently, Ukrainians staged a demonstration in 2014, Revolution of Dignity, that ousted Viktor Yanukovych because of his pro-Russian ideologies. This provoked Russia to support the separatist group in Donbas to fight the Ukrainian armies. Reports have it that more than 14, 000 lives were killed. Consequently, the Russian forces invaded Ukraine and "forcibly" annexed the Crimean peninsula.

Currently, the crux of the matter that intensified the tension between the two countries is that Ukraine aspires to have closer ties with the West. Moreover, Russians still feel that it's the Ukrainians who aided the German Nazis in 1941 to invade them after the two great powers signed a nonaggression pact two years before. Therefore, Vladimir Putin has clearly expressed their demands on the West. Because they once had a verbal agreement with the West that NATO wouldn't expand farther east. Because he's seeing their presence as an "existential threat" to Russian security. The Kremlin's autocratic leader is tactically amassing hundreds of thousands of troops on the Ukrainian border saying that they might invade if their demands are not met. 

On the other hand, following World War II the United States and its democratic partners came together and provided a global system in which countries would be safe and free from any great-power aggression. The rules of this system shape "global security, economics, and governance." As a result, the system has "contributed to the absence of great-power war for over seven decades in the world."

Therefore, the United States and NATO aren't going to let any country meddle in other countries' affairs to the extent of calling it an important part of the country Ry. In his speech, the U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said that "once the principles of sovereignty and self-determination are thrown out, you revert to a world in which the rules we shaped together over decades erode and then vanish." Therefore, the West is extending a hand of diplomatic dialogue if Russia is willing to withdraw its troops from the Ukrainian border. 

For instance, if Russia resisted the calls the consequences would be very severe. Such halting the affairs of the country, Putin and his "propagandists" will face the wrath of the laws, Russia would be cut from the International Community, and they would be restricted from going to any country in the world. To cut it short, if Russia continues to amass hundreds of thousands of troops on the Ukrainian border, the United States and its democratic allies would enact harsh sanctions on them. However, the Kremlin has unequivocally contended that it's the United States that's fueling this tension. But, on the other hand, the White House said they are doing this to protect the sovereignty of Kyiv and other great-power borderline aggression.

Again, the U.S. Secretary of State Anthony J. Blinken said that Ukraine-Russia is "a crisis with global consequences, and it requires global attention and action." For this reason, the global economy is nervous. Experts simply asserted that this conflict could disrupt the global supply chain. So disrupting Ukraine's agricultural production could worsen the cost of living for so many people. And the immediate impact beyond the Ukrainian border will manifest in Eastern Europe and the Baltics. Ukraine has been dubbed the "breadbasket" of Europe. 

Most interestingly, this tends to spread dire consequences across the African continent and other Asian countries. For example, for too long, Ukraine has been exporting grains, vegetable oil, and lots of other agricultural products to African countries. Therefore if this tension continues to escalate, the supply chains could be disrupted. Thereby food prices would spike and yet another problem looms. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Egypt, Libya, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Lebanon, and Indonesia import most of their wheat from Ukraine. So this is how bad it is. 

Finally, I believe the world has a responsibility to ensure that the Russian invasion has stopped. All the countries involved should come together and engage diplomatically. I also believe that these countries should overlook their differences and negotiate in the best interest of the whole world. Also, let it be known that exchanging harsh words and threatening to undermine someone's legitimacy is no way to achieve peace. Diplomatic dialogue is the only positive in this respect. Therefore, the international community should take it upon itself to secure peace on the Russia and Ukraine border. Because it's too obvious that if Russia refused to back off its warfare and the West stood by enacting harsh sanctions, the world's peace would plummet. In the future, I believe no one wants to see Russia and China conspire against the international rules-based system.