The Challenges and Potential of the BRICS Alliance

The BRICS Summit banner in Johannesburg, SA (📸Aljazeera)

In addition to what happened in Russia yesterday, the ongoing BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, is another interesting topic that attracted divergent opinions from experts and international relations enthusiasts on the challenges and potential of emerging economies such as China, Russia, India, Brazil, and South Africa. The summit has divided opinions between those who believe that there is an emerging new world order on the rise, and others who believe it's too early to make such a bold assertion.

The more than a decade-old bloc has recently attracted the attention of other emerging economies in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. On the face of it, the bloc can tremendously play a big part in high-ranking decision-making bodies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, World Trade Organization (WTO), United Nations (UN), etc. However, when the coalition continues to be nurtured purely to rival the established Western powers, I fear it may end up unable to achieve significant reforms in global affairs.

Moreover, the existing signatory countries in the alliance have an ambivalent strategic leaning towards the West and China-Russia. According to experts, for instance, Brazil, India, and South Africa want to maintain a cordial relationship with the West and at the same time with the two countries. On the other hand, Russia and China want to expand the bloc by adding new countries that could sever ties with the West and largely depend on the two largest economies of the alliance.

Additionally, the prospective countries have also exhibited similar ambition of remaining cordially with all of the competing great powers. They affirmed that they are open to a mutual strategic relationship with the West, Beijing, and Moscow. Therefore, as experts believe, these strategic predispositions from member states will largely affect the BRICS cohesion going forward, which many consider will leave the bloc vulnerable to external pressures, particularly from the West. 

Besides, as President Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil said, the bloc should not incorporate other countries too quickly as it portends to weaken it. Hence, Beijing and Moscow should know that with the addition of more countries despite the huge economic, political, and social status of the bloc, the West is many steps ahead and only astute decision-making can shake its existing hegemony.

It's pertinent for Beijing and Moscow to note that Washington didn't have it all figured out in the twinkle of an eye. It takes years of arduous work and sacrifices to reach the level they occupy today in global affairs. They capitalize on every opportunity to further cement their global dominance. Without a doubt, if Russia and China want to see the growth of the BRICS as they have on paper, they have to put their rhetoric into action. They have to stop rehashing the same argument over and over again that Washington has "dollarized" the global economy, and always decides the future of more than half of the world population.

However, if the stale rhetoric of dollar weaponization persists, the West will continue to determine the trajectory of the global economy and security. The BRICS will continue to lag in the most important decision-making even if they attain the 2050 prognosis made by experts of becoming the largest economic body in the world because they prefer to talk about problems more than to take action. This signifies that it takes more than rhetoric to make a difference in the quest for global supremacy. 

Therefore, I believe President Xi Jinping of China, Vladimir Putin of Russia, and Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa should keep calm and seek new ways forward that have the core interest of the bloc in becoming one of the leading global economic decision-making voices. Although Brazil and India have expressed their positive response to the idea of expanding the bloc, the aforementioned three leaders are the vocal proponents of the BRICS expansion. They are the leaders who are fueling the expansion agenda. Even though more than 40 countries have expressed interest, about 12 have written a formal declaration of joining the bloc. 

Overall, the BRICS have enormous potential to make a giant stride in occupying a seat in the global decision-making bodies. Yet, there is still a long way to go considering the strategic differences among the existing and prospective member states. This is why the leaders of China and Russia need to take a significant role in consolidating the foundation of the bloc and being careful with making decisions purely motivated by nothing more than caprice. This is how the bloc can take its rightful seat in the global decision-making.