Can the United States and its NATO Allies Secure the Peace in Eastern Europe and Earn the Respect of the World?

 

I have a strong feeling that it's not yet over in the Russia-Ukraine war thanks to Vladimir Putin's recent escalation. Such as the partial military mobilization, civilian targeted bombardments, and the annexation of the four Ukrainian regions occupied by the Russian military since the war broke out early this year. Some experts suggest that the reason Putin is intensifying this war is that his armies are losing large swathes of occupied regions and at the same time, losing his personnel in unprecedented numbers.

Last week, a few hours after the Ukrainian troops captured some parts of the Kharkiv region in northeast Ukraine and made some encouraging advances in other regions, spurred  Putin to call for "partial" military mobilization whose numbers are expected to reach 300, 000 personnel. Although Putin asserted that these recruits are going to be reservists in case his forces need some reinforcement in the later stages of the war. Nonetheless, this action made experts believe that Putin is not all too happy about how things are going for Russia at the moment. Surprisingly, Putin's call for military mobilization has caused lots of uproars that have seen so many Russians fleeing from the country. 

On the other hand, the official annexation of four Ukrainian regions — Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk — experts believe could also be a clue that the Russian forces are running out of time. This means that it is taking longer than expected since the war began in February this year. This is why Vladimir Putin called for a quick referendum in these four regions "to force the residents to join Russia," experts said. And according to the Kremlin reports, more than 90 percent of the residents have agreed to join the Russian Federation. However, it was alleged that the residents were forced at gunpoint to choose to be part of Moscow. During the official annexation ceremony, Putin said that the four regions are now "forever" part of Russia.

Admittedly, I am beginning to agree with what experts contend that it is, indeed, not going as planned for the Kremlin and its troops. Here's the folly, Russia's active and reserve military personnel have more than doubled Ukrainian figures. It's believed that no matter what Ukraine did, they can never outnumber them. I believe, therefore, if Russia is not losing key battlefields why did Putin call for immediate military mobilization? Although he has been denying the alleged fact that they are losing key battlefields. It's pertinent to recall that Ukraine did the same mobilization during the onset of this war, however, as a result of their small military size. Looking at how things are going, as Ukraine is every day announcing key advances in Russian-occupied regions, we can discern that there could be a major setback for Moscow.

Moreover, Putin's nuclear war game threats could also be a key driver in the recent annexation of four Ukrainian regions. Here's what I guess Putin is thinking to himself, "let me quickly annex these regions and provoke the West since they are funding and providing military equipment for the Ukraine war." He continued, "I know that the West might incorporate Ukraine into the NATO alliance if I intensify the bombardments and capture more inches of Ukrainian territory. Subsequently, they would invoke article 5 which says an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all." Thus, this will give Putin the pretext to launch a nuclear war against the entire western bloc (if they finally allow Ukraine to join the alliance). Which will undoubtedly jeopardize the peace of the entire world.

Indeed, it's no longer a secret that Putin has been threatening to use nuclear weapons if the territorial integrity of Russia comes under attack. This is why I believe nuclear war with Putin is more likely if the West intervenes in the four regions annexed by Russia. In his speech, today, he [Putin] mentioned that the United States was the first and only country that set the precedent of nuclear war in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Therefore, as Putin added, Russia will look up to those events when the need comes in an unprecedented manner. This is to show that Putin is ever ready to wage a war that no one can win.

On the contrary, Joe Biden, in his speech during the 77th United Nations General Assembly, plainly stated that "nuclear war should not be fought" because there won't be victors for either side. Certainly, this is a very complex issue because Putin has remained invisible in his war maneuvers. This means that anything can happen as it stands. Because as I write this, Ukraine is reportedly said that they have made huge progress in their application to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Frankly, I strongly believe that the scary hours of the International Rules-Based System are about to unfold before our eyes. Unquestionably, Putin will continue to undermine every United Nations charter that prevents this world from any great power aggression since the end of World War II. Similarly, Ukraine will do all it can to finally secure membership into the NATO alliance as the war is becoming more and more intense — you know what that means. 

Furthermore, the West will continue to fund Ukraine's war, and when push comes to shove we may, perhaps, see the West, most especially, the United States start striking strategic Russian military bases which may lead to a nuclear holocaust. Although I have to admit that U.S. intervention militarily is not very likely, and I am sort of sure that the remaining NATO coalitions share the same motive. 

Nevertheless, I am not a pessimist about this war, I am an optimist. I do hope before this escalation reaches the doors of no return, an agreement of ceasefire and genuine peace talks backed by tangible security guarantees between Kyiv and the Kremlin will take place. I do hope there will be compromises from both the two opposing sides. Perhaps these new forms of talks and security guarantees may see Ukraine and Russia finally securing the peace and earning the respect of the world.

May peace and justice prevail!