What People Often Leave Out When Discussing Washington-Beijing Geopolitical Rivalry

Photo: The Atlantic President Joe Biden and Xi Jinping of China

The most prominent sentiment put forward by so many people in the discussion of geopolitical rivalry or shift in the global balance of power between the United States of America (USA) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) is that Washington's global preeminence is rapidly declining while Beijing is growing in an unprecedented manner. Often, this sentiment is not true in its entirety. Although I must concede that China's tremendous progress in the last decades has been astonishing.

According to some nebulous economists, the United States of America's global hegemony is "declining rapidly" in the face of China's rapid economic growth in the last few years. This argument may be valid if Xi Jinping had not changed the orientation of the Chinese economy recently. It is pertinent to know that China under Xi Xinping today is more like any other ruthless authoritarian regime, focusing on how to get greater control over the political economy rather than actual economic development that may catapult Beijing to the projected global dominance.

If you can recall, similar nebulous economists in 2010 projected China to surpass the U.S. as the world's greatest superpower by 2020. But here we are in 2022, with China mired in a complicated economic growth retardation. Without a doubt, China's new anticipated global supremacy by 2030 is as exaggerated as the one stated in 2010. There is no solid economic evidence to suggest that China is rapidly gaining global dominance.

Economists such as Derek Scissors believe that much of China's projections of global hegemony are based on a shaky basis that is both unclear and unachievable. Although he admitted that “China has the world's biggest economy when evaluated in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), major international-relations academics believe that real GDP is a superior indicator of international power and influence.”

Contrary to common assumption, the United States is not fast losing its position as the world's greatest economy. According to expert economists, the United States is not “declining,” but rather “its proportion of real-world GDP has been steady at between 20-25 percent since the 1960s, and it sits precisely within that range at 23 percent today.” While China's GDP increased from 4% in the 1990s to 15% now. The U.S., in contrast to China, has a more factual economic strategy that supports entrepreneurship and rapid economic growth. China, on the other hand, is seeking to make everything about the state at the expense of its citizens and foreign investment's autonomy in its market.

Admittedly, despite its recent economic slowdown, China should not be written off. Beijing, under Xi, is posing one of the most unparalleled economic and military threats to the rest of the globe. As a result, it is in everyone's best interests for Beijing to follow the norms of the international rules-based system that governs how major powers should respect the geographical, economic, and security integrity of other countries.

Finally, this is simply the tip of the iceberg in this new series of "Washington-Beijing Geopolitics Competition."